Picture an everyday Joe, armed with nothing but a smartphone and a hunch, steps into the new frontier of on-chain prediction markets.
Analysts say back in early 2024, monthly volumes idled under $100 million, like a sleepy saloon before the gold rush. Fast forward to now, and bam!
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They’re roaring past $13 billion, a 130-fold leap that leaves traditional finance choking on dust.
Electoral Armageddon
This is straight from Dune Analytics’ fresh report, but hell, Artemis data cranks it even higher.
They say $14.5 billion last month alone, smashing records on Polymarket and Kalshi after October’s measly $9.4 billion.
Prediction markets are the new sheriffs in town, fastest-growing shootout in finance.
Sports betting hogged the spotlight lately, especially in the U.S., yet 2025’s real fireworks explode in Economics (10x volume) and Tech & Science (17x).
Open interest? Economics jumps 7x, Social & Culture 6x. Politics, Elections, and Economics rule the roost on big platforms.
Kalshi, that U.S.-regulated powerhouse adding crypto bones this year, stacks 2.5 times more open interest in those than sports.
Polymarket? Politics crushed sports by 400%, talk about electoral Armageddon.
The galaxy of bullsh*t
The platforms say these markets aren’t just gambling dens. They’re truth oracles in a galaxy of bullsh*t.
Hooking up with CNN, CNBC, and Yahoo Finance, they twitch in real-time, sniffing trends before the suits even sniff coffee.
Kalshi’s inflation market? 4.3 times less volatile than the Cleveland FedNow model.
Accuracy? Polymarket and Kalshi flaunt Brier scores around 0.09, even 200 days out.
Perfect is 0, total flop is 1, and these babies nail it. Prices hit 90-95% right, juiced by liquidity. One month pre-event, 90.4%.
Day before, 88.5%. Final four hours, 94.1%. You bet right, you cash in, wrong, you bleed.
Shayne Coplan, Polymarket’s founder, nails it, saying “this tech is the most accurate thing we have right now.”
Crowd wisdom
Cue the triumphant return. Polymarket’s back in the U.S. after CFTC greenlight, app live for waitlisters, real-money bets on sports, politics, everything.
Fresh off a $2 billion ICE injection (that’s NYSE’s overlords), the hero claims the throne.
Polymarket, Kalshi, these platforms turn crowd wisdom into wisdom crowds can’t ignore. In this absurd universe, prediction markets might just be the ultimate Guide.
Disclosure:This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Kriptoworld.com accepts no liability for any errors in the articles or for any financial loss resulting from incorrect information.
Cryptocurrency and Web3 expert, founder of Kriptoworld
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With years of experience covering the blockchain space, András delivers insightful reporting on DeFi, tokenization, altcoins, and crypto regulations shaping the digital economy.
📅 Published: December 18, 2025 • 🕓 Last updated: December 18, 2025
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