There’s a new power factor in play. Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder of BitMEX and the man who once flew his hype Ferrari Testarossa straight through Bitcoin’s chaotic skies, just declared the iconic four-year Bitcoin cycle dead.
Not because of some lame timing or halving event, but due to the very real beast lurking behind price swings, monetary policy chaos.
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Money printing
Hayes points out that Bitcoin’s price waves aren’t obedient puppies to a neat four-year leash.
Instead, they dance to the tune of how much USD or Chinese yuan is printed, injected, or drained from the global financial bloodstream.
And fair enough, many experts say the correlation is eerie. Past cycles actually faded not on schedule, but when money printing slowed, credit tightened, and monetary spigots snapped shut, end of party.
Now, this current cycle is riding a very different beast. The U.S. Treasury, in a baller move, drained $2.5 trillion from the Fed’s Reverse Repo program into markets by cranking out Treasury bills like a slot machine on steroids.
President Donald Trump is playing the classic run-it-hot game, easing monetary policy hard to drown debt in cheap money and deregulating banks to flood the system with loans.
USD liquidity
Throw in an unexpected encore from the Fed with planned rate cuts this year, despite inflation being far from tamed, something 94% of CME market odds agree on for October, with a follow-up probable in December.
This is like watching the monetary masters doing a bizarre salsa on the economic floor.
Flashback to Bitcoin’s history, analysts say the first bull run rode the wave of Federal Reserve quantitative easing and Chinese credit kicking it into high gear, crashing when both slowed. The ICO frenzy cycle?
Fueled mainly by yuan credit expansion, crashing as Chinese credit eased. More recently, the COVID-19 cycle was all about USD liquidity, ending when the Fed tightened slots.
The show must go on
This time, China isn’t the party pooper. Instead of continuing their deflation dance, Chinese policymakers aim to end deflation or at least stay neutral, removing a critical downward pressure. So, U.S. money printing is now running solo, pushing Bitcoin higher.
Hayes sums it up with a flair. Money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise. The king is dead, long live the king!
Sure, on-chain data analysts like Glassnode whisper that some cycle patterns persist, and crypto exchange heads believe a form of this four-year rhythm lingers.
But Hayes? He’s staring down the old dog’s bones and lighting a new fire in the cryptoverse. And maybe he’s right.
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Cryptocurrency and Web3 expert, founder of Kriptoworld
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With years of experience covering the blockchain space, András delivers insightful reporting on DeFi, tokenization, altcoins, and crypto regulations shaping the digital economy.
📅 Published: October 11, 2025 • 🕓 Last updated: October 11, 2025
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