Risk-on 2026 is sounding the horn, courtesy of VanEck’s fresh outlook. The investment giant sees clearer skies on US fiscal moves and Fed expectations.
That means good times ahead for wild bets like AI stocks and crypto. Except Bitcoin’s gone rogue, decoupling from the pack.
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Policy Visibility Fuels Risk-On 2026 Hopes
VanEck dropped its Q1 2026 report Tuesday, painting a picture of actual policy visibility after years of fog.
— VanEck (@vaneck_us) January 12, 2026
No more guessing games on fiscal cliffs or rate surprises. Investors finally get a straight shot at what’s coming.
This setup juices risk assets, think tech darlings and crypto plays. VanEck calls it a stable phase where bold moves pay off, at least through the first quarter. Medium-term bets, not knee-jerk trades.
Put it in perspective, this mirrors the post-2008 recovery, when Fed clarity sparked a bull run in riskier stuff, and S&P 500 was up 400% over a decade.
Policy fog kills momentum, sunshine brings the gamblers back.
Bitcoin Cycle Break Muddies The Risk-On Picture
Here’s where Bitcoin flips the script. VanEck says the usual four-year Bitcoin cycle snapped in 2025, so short-term signals are junk now. Trust them at your peril over the next three to six months.
Of course, not everyone at the firm agrees, some execs stay bullish on BTC’s near-term pop. That internal split screams confusion.
Bitcoin’s decouples from stocks and gold post-October deleveraging, trading like a lone wolf with its own fever dreams.
What Bitcoin Decouples Means For Your Portfolio
Experts say that October shakeout changed everything. Bitcoin used to tag along with equities during risk parties.
Now? It shrugs off the crowd, especially when leverage unwinds. VanEck warns this makes BTC tougher to slot into portfolios. No more riding stock waves or hiding like gold.
If correlations stay busted, Bitcoin stands alone, thrilling for diehards, terrifying for the cautious.
Analysts Bet Big Amid $92K Retest
Crypto watchers aren’t sweating it. Will Clemente points to Fed pressure, rising metals as nations hoard reserves, stock records, and global tensions. Prime Bitcoin weather.
This environment is literally what Bitcoin was created for. The President is coming after the Fed chair. Metals are ripping as sovereigns diversify reserves. Stocks & risk assets at record highs. Geopolitical risk rising.
If bitcoin can’t catch a bid soon then IDK
— Will (@WClementeIII) January 12, 2026
Another fellow crypto expert, Michaël van de Poppe sees six figures by late January.
No drop below the 21-day moving average, buyers piling in at these levels. Clear $92,000, and $100,000 hits in 10 days max.
So far, so good.
This is great.
No drop beneath the 21-Day MA.
Buyers stepping in to accumulate #Bitcoin at these regions.
Given the fact that the markets hang in this range for such a long time, it shows the significance of the potential breakout levels.
In that regard,… pic.twitter.com/ufN17wJsgk
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 12, 2026
Risk-on 2026 feels real, policy backdrop and all. Bitcoin’s solo act adds spice, or sabotage. Grab your popcorn, this year’s already weirder than a sequel nobody asked for.
Disclosure:This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Kriptoworld.com accepts no liability for any errors in the articles or for any financial loss resulting from incorrect information.
Cryptocurrency and Web3 expert, founder of Kriptoworld
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With years of experience covering the blockchain space, András delivers insightful reporting on DeFi, tokenization, altcoins, and crypto regulations shaping the digital economy.
📅 Published: January 14, 2026 • 🕓 Last updated: January 14, 2026
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