Something unusual is happening in macro positioning. Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey shows record underweight positioning on the U.S. dollar.
Investors are reducing exposure as concerns grow around labor market softening and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
This is a strong signal about global capital flows.
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Why investors are turning bearish on the dollar
The survey highlights two core drivers: labor market cooling and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
If rate cuts materialize, U.S. yield differentials narrow. That removes one of the dollar’s strongest supports over the past two years: high relative interest rates.
When investors anticipate easing monetary policy, they often rebalance away from the dollar and into risk assets, commodities, or alternative stores of value.
Being “underweight” the dollar means large investors are structurally reducing exposure, not just making short-term trades. Positioning data reflects that shift.
Why this matters for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has historically responded to liquidity cycles and dollar strength. When the dollar rallies sharply, risk assets often struggle. When the dollar weakens and liquidity expectations improve, Bitcoin tends to perform better.
That doesn’t make Bitcoin a perfect hedge. It does mean macro positioning matters.
A weaker bearish dollar also changes global capital incentives, especially in emerging markets where dollar strength can strain local currencies.
Bitcoin sometimes benefits in those conditions as a non-sovereign asset.
What informed retail should watch
The “digital gold” thesis often fades during tight monetary cycles. But if rate cuts become likely and bearish dollar bets remain elevated, that narrative can resurface.
This does not guarantee a rally. Markets price expectations early. Sometimes they overshoot.
Still, record positioning is not random noise. When institutional surveys show extreme views, it often marks an inflection point in asset allocation debates.
Watch Fed communication, inflation trends, labor market data, and dollar index movements. Because when the dollar cycle turns, Bitcoin eventually notices.
Cryptocurrency and Web3 expert, founder of Kriptoworld
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With years of experience covering the blockchain space, András delivers insightful reporting on DeFi, tokenization, altcoins, and crypto regulations shaping the digital economy.
📅 Published: February 18, 2026 • 🕓 Last updated: February 18, 2026
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