I view the convergence of key on-chain indicators such as realized price and MVRV as a strong signal that Bitcoin is entering a late-stage bear phase, a period historically associated with the beginning of long-term capital accumulation.

In this environment, crypto increasingly functions as a hedge for USD-denominated assets, supported by continued BTC ETF inflows and expanding stablecoin liquidity that reinforce the market’s structural foundation.

At the same time, macro pressures remain a factor. Geopolitical tensions and their impact on energy markets have strengthened the correlation between oil prices and the U.S. dollar index, which can delay the formation of a clear market bottom.

Even so, these dynamics highlight the sector’s growing resilience as institutional flows and on-chain activity continue to deepen.

Investors should interpret this stage of the cycle as an opportunity for strategic accumulation, particularly as exchange Bitcoin balances decline and large holders continue to absorb supply.

In the near term, I expect BTC to oscillate between $68,000 and $84,000 as the market stabilizes.

Ethereum is likely to follow a similar consolidation pattern, with ETH trading in the $1,800 to $2,500 range, supported by ongoing ecosystem development and adoption across DeFi and broader on-chain applications.

Together, these conditions suggest a market transitioning toward a healthier structure as long-term capital quietly rebuilds positions.

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget

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