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Interpreting Powell’s Signals and Macro Environment
We view Powell’s Jackson Hole speech as reinforcing a data-dependent approach, rather than a firm commitment to sustained monetary easing, with the Fed prioritizing inflation risks from tariffs and immigration policies over immediate labor market concerns.
Investors should view this as a cautious stance, with the Fed likely to act only if employment weakens significantly, as evidenced by the 80% probability of a September rate cut following the speech.
The risk of stagflation, driven by tariff-induced price increases and slower labor force growth, is a red flag that could limit the Fed’s ability to cut rates aggressively, especially with inflation at 2.7% above the 2% target.
However, markets may still expect dovish support if growth softens further, particularly after the weak July jobs report, which showed only 73,000 jobs added.
This tension suggests a volatile macro environment, with the Fed’s next moves hinging on incoming data.
For Bitcoin and Ethereum, this uncertainty could drive short-term price swings, with Bitcoin potentially dropping to $110,000 and Ethereum to $4,000 if hawkish signals dominate due to persistent inflation.
Conversely, a dovish shift could push Bitcoin toward $140,000 and Ethereum to $6,000 in the coming weeks, driven by optimism over rate cuts.
Investors should adopt a tactical approach, utilizing dollar-cost averaging to mitigate crypto’s sensitivity to macroeconomic developments.
Vugar Usi Zade, COO at Bitget
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