Many analysts said one key factor for an altcoin season was the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs. This happened, but altcoins remained quiet. We’d like to speak to the manager.
Bitcoin went up, when altseason?
Altcoins started an uptrend some time ago, but it didn’t last long, Mr. Gainzy didn’t come.
The Altcoin Season Index was at 33 back then, buta s many arguing, for a true altcoin season, the index needs to hit 75, meaning 75% of the top 50 non-Bitcoin cryptos are outperforming Bitcoin.
Right now, the index stands at 18, a level it last reached on June 20 and before that in November 2023. This drop signals that altcoins are struggling to perform better than Bitcoin, which recently reclaimed $70,000.
This decline could be due to the lack of investor interest in many altcoins, as now there are literally millions of new alts, and the noise is almost unbearable.
If interest continues to fall, and many thinks it will, demand might remain low. This can lead to prices moving sideways or even decreasing, causing the altcoin season to fade away. Well, that’s unfortunate.
Hopium squared
The current performance is poor, but some market participants are still hopeful for an altcoin season.
Ty Blackard, co-founder of Magnify Labs, a decentralized credits market is one of them. He believes the market will shift to an altcoin season once Ethereum surpasses its all-time high, but we aren’t there yet.
Blackard stated that the market will pivot to altseason as ETH crosses over ATH, and while memecoins will still be around, but the focus will shift to tokens with more utility or fundamentals. Hard to believe as memecoins often steal the spotlight.
How the alt market looks?
A detailed look at the altcoin market shows that altcoin season can happen with or without Ethereum’s influence.
The popular news site, Beincrypto’s experts’ analysis of TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 supports this view.
TOTAL2 is the total market cap of the top 125 altcoins excluding Bitcoin, while TOTAL3 excludes both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The trends of both market caps are similar, which suggests that Ethereum’s price might not be essential for altseason as it was in 2021.
But worth to keep in mind only if capital flows from Bitcoin to altcoins, can boost altcoin prices. If this happens, the chances of an altcoin season this cycle will increase.
