The Bitcoin treasury game is been the hot ticket for a while. But now? The big boss, crypto analyst James Check, is telling us straight, the easy ride might be over for the new kids on the block.

The Bitcoin treasury playbook? It’s got a way shorter shelf life than most think. You wanna jump in? Better bring something special, or you’re just another wannabe waiting to get crushed.

Early adopters

Check is the lead analyst at Glassnode, so he knows his sh*t, and now he dropped this opinion on X last Friday.

He says the Bitcoin treasury strategy, the one where companies stash Bitcoin as a reserve asset, isn’t the golden goose it once was.

For many newcomers, the party’s basically done. It’s not about who’s got the biggest stash anymore, it’s about who’s got the smarts and the stamina to keep stacking Bitcoin long-term.

Think about it like this, nobody’s lining up for the 50th pizza joint in town, right? Same with Bitcoin treasury firms.

Investors are cozying up to the OGs, the early adopters who already have the goods.

The big fish like Michael Saylor’s Strategy holding 597,325 BTC, or MARA Holdings with 50,000 BTC, are running the show. And what about the rookies? They’re scrambling for scraps.

The big players have more runway

In the last 30 days, 21 new entities jumped on the Bitcoin treasury train, according to BitcoinTreasuries data.

But Check warns, these startups mostly attract retail speculators, like SPACs did a few years back, and guess what?

Retail money ain’t infinite. So, if you’re a small fish trying to swim with the sharks, better have a niche or a killer strategy.

Check’s bullish on Bitcoin itself, but he’s realistic. The big players have more runway, while the 300th Bitcoin treasury company? Not so much.

The co-founder of Taproot Wizards echoes this sentiment. He says many companies are chasing quick bucks with Bitcoin treasuries without grasping the long game.

The weak ones? They might get swallowed up by the strong, bought at a discount. The trend? Yeah, it’s got some legs left, but it’s no free-for-all.

Reputation

And honestly, it’s not just talk. Venture capital firm Breed warned that only a handful of Bitcoin treasury companies will survive the brutal death spiral hitting firms trading close to net asset value.

Fakhul Miah from GoMining Institutional also flagged the copycats trying to build Bitcoin banks without proper safeguards.

If those smaller firms blow up, and a few of them likely will, it could send shockwaves through Bitcoin’s reputation.

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