Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s divergence from tech stocks is a “fire alarm” for fiat systems. But is he right?
The BitMEX co-founder and crypto commentator argues that Bitcoin’s recent decoupling from tech stocks signals systemic stress in traditional finance.
Stay ahead in the crypto world – follow us on X for the latest updates, insights, and trends!🚀
His thesis: Bitcoin is behaving as a hedge against fiat debasement, while tech stocks remain tied to traditional risk assets.
The correlation breakdown
The data shows a correlation breakdown. For years, Bitcoin moved with tech stocks—both risk assets, both sensitive to liquidity conditions.
Recently, that correlation has weakened. Bitcoin has underperformed tech even as both face similar macro headwinds.
Hayes sees this as validation of Bitcoin’s monetary thesis.
If Bitcoin is truly digital gold—a hedge against fiat currency debasement—then it should behave differently from tech stocks during periods of monetary stress.
Alternative explanations
But there’s another explanation. The divergence may reflect broader monetary policy shifts rather than crypto-specific strength
Higher interest rates, quantitative tightening, and risk asset repricing are affecting all markets. Bitcoin isn’t immune to these forces.
The truth is probably somewhere in between. Bitcoin does have monetary hedge properties.
But it’s also a risk asset that responds to liquidity conditions. The recent divergence could reflect both factors at play.
Scrutinizing the thesis
Hayes’ “fire alarm” thesis deserves attention. But it also deserves scrutiny.
Correlation breakdowns can signal many things—not all of them bullish for crypto.
Cryptocurrency and Web3 expert, founder of Kriptoworld
LinkedIn | X (Twitter) | More articles
With years of experience covering the blockchain space, András delivers insightful reporting on DeFi, tokenization, altcoins, and crypto regulations shaping the digital economy.
📅 Published: February 20, 2026 • 🕓 Last updated: February 20, 2026
✉️ Contact: [email protected]
Disclosure:This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Kriptoworld.com accepts no liability for any errors in the articles or for any financial loss resulting from incorrect information.
