Two very different signals are coming out of big crypto brands this week.
Kraken has quietly put its multibillion‑dollar IPO plans on ice, citing weak market conditions, even as Kraken Pro rolls out its biggest margin expansion to date.
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At the same time, Citi has downgraded rival Gemini Space Station to “Sell” and cut its BTC and ETH targets, arguing that profitability could take years and that crypto‑linked equities are facing a tougher backdrop than many investors expected.
That mix looks contradictory at first. It really is not. It just shows that product momentum inside crypto and investor appetite for crypto stocks are no longer moving in lockstep.
Kraken: IPO on hold, margin pedal down
According to reporting cited by Finance Magnates and Reuters, Kraken parent Payward confidentially filed an S‑1 with the SEC in November 2025 but has now paused the process.
The company still appears to want a public listing eventually, but not while crypto‑linked equities trade on weaker revenue multiples and investor demand for fresh listings has cooled from last year’s hotter market.
The backdrop is pretty simple. Since late 2025, crypto prices and exchange volumes have softened, which matters because exchange earnings still depend heavily on trading activity and fee generation.
Lower volumes make it harder to justify the kind of IPO valuation that looked realistic during the 2025 listing cycle, especially after some recently listed crypto firms traded below their offer prices.
Operationally, though, Kraken is not acting like a company in retreat.
Kraken Pro has expanded margin leverage across 44 additional trading pairs, its largest single margin expansion so far, covering stablecoins, gold‑backed tokens, regional BTC and ETH pairs, mid‑cap assets, and DeFi blue chips.
In total, the platform now supports more than 240 margin markets, reinforcing Kraken’s pitch to active traders even while management waits for a better IPO window.
Citi: Gemini downgrade and lower BTC/ETH targets
If you want to understand why Kraken might be cautious about going public right now, Citi’s new note on Gemini helps fill in the picture.
Citi downgraded Gemini Space Station from Neutral to Sell and slashed its 12‑month price target from 13 dollars to 5.50 dollars, saying the company may need years to reach durable profitability.
Gemini shares fell more than 16% after the note, which is a pretty blunt sign of how nervous public markets are about crypto‑exchange earnings right now.
Citi’s reasoning is also broader than one stock. The bank pointed to softer crypto prices and trading volumes than previously expected, rising competition among exchanges and custodians, and ongoing regulatory friction in the U.S. that makes business planning and valuation harder.
In the same note, Citi cut its 12‑month BTC target from 143,000 dollars to 112,000 and trimmed its ETH forecast from around 4,304 dollars to about 3,450, which fed into lower targets across a wider basket of crypto‑linked equities.
Same industry, different signals
Not surprisingly, the mixed messaging can be confusing. On the product side, Kraken is acting like business is still full steam ahead, more margin pairs, more leverage options, more tools for advanced traders.
On the capital‑markets side, Kraken’s IPO pause and Citi’s Gemini downgrade are basically saying the same thing: public investors are no longer willing to pay up simply because a company sits in crypto.
The practical takeaway is that “crypto market health” depends on where you are standing. Inside the industry, exchanges are still competing aggressively on product depth and trading features.
Outside it, equity analysts and IPO bankers want steadier profits, cleaner regulation, and less dependence on one good cycle.
If you look at crypto platforms both as places to trade and as possible stocks to own, it helps to separate those two layers.
A strong product roadmap can coexist with a cold IPO market, and operational momentum does not guarantee a warm welcome from public investors.
Cryptocurrency and Web3 expert, founder of Kriptoworld
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With years of experience covering the blockchain space, András delivers insightful reporting on DeFi, tokenization, altcoins, and crypto regulations shaping the digital economy.
📅 Published: March 20, 2026 • 🕓 Last updated: March 20, 2026
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