The second quarter of 2026 is likely to remain highly sensitive to how geopolitical developments continue to influence energy markets and broader liquidity conditions.

If tensions around Iran persist and materially constrain Asian oil supply, Brent crude could remain above $120, aligning with inflation expectations and keeping macro conditions tight across global markets.

A prolonged energy shock would make any meaningful easing path more difficult, increasing pressure across risk assets even if broader economic activity remains relatively stable.

Markets would likely respond through deeper defensive positioning if energy prices stay elevated for an extended period.

Under that scenario, Bitcoin could move toward the $55,000 range, Ethereum may test the $1,500 area, and XRP could approach $1.00 as tighter liquidity and reduced risk appetite weigh across digital assets.

The primary transmission channel remains oil, as higher energy costs continue to influence yield expectations, portfolio positioning, and capital allocation.

A faster diplomatic resolution would likely shift that framework quickly. If supply concerns ease and oil stabilizes lower, broader liquidity conditions could improve, allowing Bitcoin to move above $90,000, Ethereum toward the $2,700 to $2,800 range, and XRP beyond $1.80 as risk appetite returns.

Current Q2 ranges therefore remain wide, with Bitcoin between $55,000 and $94,000, Ethereum between $1,500 and $2,800, and XRP between $1.00 and $1.80, while institutional ETF accumulation continues to provide underlying resilience through short-term volatility.

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget

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