The digital darling of the financial world is once again in the spotlight, and this time, it’s grappling with a combo of trade tariffs and macroeconomic chaos.

You’d think Bitcoin would be sipping cocktails on a beach by now, considering its reputation as a safe haven. Well, no.

Tariffs, trade wars, and the turmoil

President Trump isn’t playing small ball. Early into his term, he rolled out sweeping tariffs targeting specific countries and industries like a chef tossing spices into a stew, except this stew has left global markets simmering with uncertainty.

These policies have rattled traditional markets and sent investors scrambling for cover. And guess what? Bitcoin isn’t immune to the fallout.

Binance Research has been citing numbers and warns that if inflation stays high while economic growth stops, the Federal Reserve’s decisions could make or break Bitcoin’s next moves.

A dovish Fed might give crypto a boost, but if they stick to their hawkish guns? Risk assets like Bitcoin could feel the squeeze.

Bitcoin’s identity crisis?

In January 2025, Bitcoin started acting like it didn’t want to hang out with equities anymore, its correlation with stocks turned negative, to -0.32 by February.

But as trade war chatter escalated, Bitcoin seemed to change its tune, aligning more closely with equities. On the other hand, its relationship with gold took a deep dive.

Binance insists in their latest report that Bitcoin still marches to its own beat in the long run.

Historically, its correlations with stocks and gold have been more like casual acquaintances than true friendships.

Resilience

When traditional markets faltered under tariff shocks, Bitcoin often held its ground, or even bounced back.

Long-term holders didn’t flinch, they kept their stash steady, signaling unwavering faith in Bitcoin’s value amid chaos.

This resilience hints at Bitcoin’s potential to reclaim its status as a safe-haven asset during economic storms.

But for that to happen, Bitcoin now needs to ditch its clinginess to equities and rediscover its I’m my own boss vibe, just like it did during the 2023 banking crisis.

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