Kalshi said it will reimburse users after reports confirmed the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The decision targets its Ali Khamenei market on the prediction market platform.
Tarek Mansour, Kalshi’s co founder, posted the update on X. He said Kalshi does not list markets “directly tied to death.”
Kalshi said it will reimburse fees and adjust payouts. It said it will resolve the market using the last traded price before the death was confirmed.
Tarek Mansour cites death carveout rules for Kalshi payouts
In his post, Mansour said,
“We don’t list markets directly tied to death.”
He also said Kalshi writes rules to prevent people from profiting from death.
Kalshi framed the change as a rules based action. The platform said the death carveout terms were already in the market rules.
Kalshi also said it will handle payouts in two timing windows. It separated positions opened before confirmation from positions opened after confirmation.
Reimbursement plan uses last traded price before confirmation
Kalshi said it will reimburse all fees from the Ali Khamenei market. The platform also said it will pay traders with positions opened before the death.
Those payouts will use the last traded price before confirmation, according to Mansour. Kalshi said this approach anchors settlement to the final price before the key news.
Kalshi also addressed users who entered after confirmation. It said those users will receive reimbursement for the difference between their entry price and the last traded price reference.
Polymarket scrutiny grows as insider trading fears follow Iran strikes
The Kalshi update landed as other prediction market activity drew attention. Reports described unusual timing in Polymarket trades tied to Iran strikes.
In one case, six wallets reportedly made about $1 million betting on U.S. action against Iran. The report said those wallets were created in February and focused on Iran related markets.
The same report said some positions filled hours before explosions were reported over Tehran. The timing fueled insider trading suspicion among on chain analysts and traders discussing the bets.
Kalshi did not link its death carveout decision to Polymarket activity. Still, the two episodes kept focus on how a prediction market handles sensitive outcomes, fast moving news, and settlement rules.
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Tatevik Avetisyan is an editor at Kriptoworld who covers emerging crypto trends, blockchain innovation, and altcoin developments. She is passionate about breaking down complex stories for a global audience and making digital finance more accessible.
📅 Published: March 2, 2026 • 🕓 Last updated: March 2, 2026
