The proposed U.S. CLARITY Act is becoming one of the most important regulatory developments for the digital asset industry.
The focus is now shifting from whether crypto should exist to how digital asset markets may operate within a formal financial framework.
The legislation focuses on exchange registration, custody standards, customer asset segregation, stablecoin oversight, and clarifying jurisdiction boundaries between the SEC and CFTC.
Political timing will likely play a major role in determining whether the U.S. becomes a leader in regulated digital asset infrastructure or remains fragmented across overlapping state and federal frameworks.
If the bill does not make meaningful progress before August, the probability of passage in 2026 could fall below 35% as election priorities take over.
A delay would likely prolong uncertainty around licensing, custody, and trading infrastructure. If the legislation advances before August, compliant U.S. crypto trading activity could expand 3-5x by late 2026 as institutional participation accelerates.
A clearer regulatory structure could accelerate stablecoin adoption faster than markets currently expect. The stablecoin sector currently stands at roughly $320 billion.
It could grow toward a $1 trillion market by the end of 2026 if banks, payment providers, and corporates continue integrating stablecoins into treasury management, cross-border settlement, and 24/7 payments infrastructure. Stablecoins are increasingly evolving into financial rails beyond crypto trading.
If frameworks around custody, investor rights, and settlement continue maturing, onchain assets could represent close to 10% of global regulated financial assets over the next decade.
That translates to a potential $3.5 trillion base case, with estimates reaching up to $10 trillion under stronger institutional adoption. Tokenization is moving into Treasury markets, private credit, real estate, and institutional collateral management.
Gracy Chen, CEO at Bitget
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